projectevie
Jon Azrielant
Jeff Bladt
Matt Vance
andreafjeld
“The discussion will focus on realistic strategies that will lead to the commercialization of next-generation vehicles operating on clean or low-carbon fuels, electric drive, and other technologies that lessen energy dependence and contribute toward sustainable mobility."
(Jon Azrielant, live blogging from the Washington Auto Show and EDTA Conference)
This afternoon around 300 automakers, policy bigwigs, government officials and representatives from just about every industry with an interest in electric vehicles assembled on Capitol Hill for the 3rd annual Green Car Summit. It was, with few exceptions, a sober and pessimistic discussion on the future of green cars, full of non-committal statements of support for “improved fuel efficiency down the road” (about as uninspired as the pun “down the road”), and similar such watery, management-talk platitudes. Copenhagen, anyone?
Stefan Jacoby, CEO of Volkswagen America, stressed “We need to be realistic in our move towards greater fuel efficiency,” forwarding the opinion that (1) the world will not adopt EVs anytime soon, and (2) major investment in electric drivetrains will not be as profitable as incremental efficiency improvement of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. After his introductory remarks, Mr. Jacoby kept to himself, being moved to break his silence only to disagree with the more ambitious estimates set by Jason Wolf of Better Place. Mr. Wolf’s projection that 40%-50% of new vehicles sold in 2020 will be electric, for example, was met with an outburst of “I’m sorry but that is absurd.”
Ford’s position was somewhat more diplomatic and nuanced, but substantially similar. Nancy Gioia, Ford’s Director of Global Electrification, gave this projection for the future of EVs: “At Ford, by 2020, we see the market still being primarily hybrids. Affordbility, infrastructure access and the state of battery technology all limit mass adoption in the foreseeable future. But, we expect 10%-25% of our entire fleet to be at least partially electrified by then.” Considering that Ford’s bread and butter is, and always has been, the production of fuel burning cars, it would have been surprising if Ms. Gioia had been more aggressive in her support of EVs… still, it might be worth them remembering that it was tremendous innovation (with the Model T) as opposed to adhering to the status quo, that got Ford to where it is today.
Kevin Czinger, CEO of Coda Automotive, argued that his approach and projections differ from those of VW and Ford, not only because of his smaller volume and sales targets, but “because [Coda is] the one manufacturer at this table who doesn’t depend on the oil industry.” If it wasn’t entirely clear in which direction he was pointing the finger, there was no doubt of this left when he announced, “We approach the difficulties posed by competing technologies as innovators, not existing combustion engine makers.” At this point, Ms. Gioia of Ford *actually* rolled her eyes.
This wasn’t exactly a panel of dreamers. Nonetheless, some panelists seemed to be interested in doing real work towards bringing EVs to market and approaching the difficulties of doing so with ingenuity. As Jason Wolf of Bettter Place said, “We are not talking about dreams or aspirations, we are talking about a real order of an unprecedented volume [with Renault-Nissan], with more to follow. The situation with EVs is much like the situation with personal computers in the 1980s. If you asked someone in 1980 how many PCs there would be in the world by the turn of the century, they would have estimated it in the thousands. Projecting growth on linear expectations simply doesn’t capture the way this will work– adoption will be viral and there will be an explosion in EV demand.”
Filed under: EV news, EVs of the World | Tags: Rust Belt, Indiana, Elkhart, Think City, Think Electric Vehicle, John Leatherman, Navistar, Electric Motors Corp.
Indiana. Smack in the middle of the Rust Belt. As a college student in Chicago, it was known as where you’d drive half an hour to in order to buy lesser-taxed cigarettes, attend leniently-lawed strip clubs, and experience the Midwest’s most striking elevation gains – in the form of the Indiana sand dunes.
View from an EV
Indiana has had a rough time of it these past few decades. It’s been a victim to improved technology, making the manufacturing process more and more automated, and an increasingly globalized, and outsourced, economy. Well, now in a stroke of karmic genius, these very two things that brought Indiana to its knees – new technology and globalization – seem poised to help revitalize the region they once so destroyed.
Last week Think Global, a Norwegian maker of electric cars, announced the location of its first US factory to be in none other than Elkhart, Indiana. The Oslo-based company which, funnily enough, is run by a group of ex-Ford execs, plans to invest in excess of $43 million in Elkhart County, and hire up to 415 full-time workers by 2013.
The news could not’ve come at a better time, or to a better town. Elkhart is, or rather was, a hub of RV manufacturing – it’s even dubbed the “RV Capital of the World” – an industry which, unsurprisingly enough, has tanked during the recent recession, forcing many factories to close their doors and send workers home. The unemployment rate for Elkhart County reached as high as 18.9% last March.
Ironically, and in a sure sign of the times, Think will be taking over a facility formerly run by Philips Products, a company that produced doors and windows for RVs, but which folded last summer and dismissed its ~250 employees.
Think will use the factory to assemble its flagship “all electric and highway safe” Think City car. The diminutive 2-door hatchback runs entirely on lithium-ion batteries, and has a range of up to 112 miles. Though expected to go on sale for $37,500, the car will be eligible for a $7,500 tax credit, bringing the price effectively down to $30,000.
The Think City; a breath of fresh air.
Think’s decision to install its US operations in Elkhart is part of a growing trend in the county. In the neighboring town of Wakarusa, Navistar Intl. Corp plans to build all-electric delivery trucks (thanks to a $39 million govt. grant), and Electric Motoros Corp. intends on manufacturing electric-hybrid drive trains to be installed in light-duty electric trucks in a joint venture with company Gulf Stream.
As County Council President John Leatherman put it, “What w’re trying to build here is an electric car cluster, which is really a new diversification for this economy.” Indeed, ‘diversify or die’ has long been the two options for Rust Belt cities such as Elkhart. Thanks to electric cars, this Indiana town has been able to opt for the former. And if there’s anyone that can feel Indiana’s pain, its Think – the company was in bankruptcy for parts of 2008 and 2009 – only making it out by the skin of its teeth… May the fortunes of Think and Indiana rise together!
